Sunday, February 22, 2009

Chill the (heck) out, I got this.

Much ado is being made about Obama's lack of strength and quickness on progressive issues, his over-concern with bipartisanship, his apparent continuation of some distasteful or unjust Bush policies (at least temporarily).  This reminds me of the humorous and profane captioned photo of Obama being circulated on the net where he is looking into the camera and "saying,"  "Chill the f--- out.  I got this."  

How many times did we hear this Chicken Little, sky-is-falling commentary during the campaign.  First it was that Obama was being too nice to McCain calling him a genuine war hero ("Jeesh, why don't you just campaign for him, while you're at it.").  Then there was the lack of push back against both Hillary and Bills sleight-of-hand playing of the race card.  Then it was all about Obama's inadequate response to sleazy and heavy-handed efforts by Republicans to brand him as a terrorist sympathizer, a Muslim, a corrupt official, an anti-American religious nut (Rev. Wright, anyone?).  

So Obama played it cool and calm, remained magnanimous and positive, organized efficiently, fundraised impressively, and spent effectively.  Oh, and he won by 9 million votes, along with an Electoral College landslide.  He went to work immediately beginning to institute the plans he had already been making for the last 6 months, anticipating he would be in office.  Always one step of the game.  He had weekly press conferences, appointed a host of people to his cabinet, stayed out of the Washington fray ("only one President at a time"), developed strategic plans with his transition and White House teams, and hit the ground running.  

One of Obama's greatest strengths is other people's remarkably constant tendency to underestimate him.  I'm no worshipper of the man.  I actually take him at his word that he is imperfect and bound to make mistakes, but he has an unerring sense both patience and timing, allowing him reflect, gather information, and then act at the right times in ways that are not driven by anxiety, but by judgment.  That judgment may not always be exactly right, but the chances that it will be the most favorable given the myriad quagmires surrounding him is increased immeasurably by his quite measured approach.  

I'm looking at the evidence.  Exhibit 1:  The stimulus bill.  He took a "bipartisan" approach which apparently fell flat on its face.  The bill included compromises on tax cuts with zero Republican representatives and only 3 senators supporting it.  However, the spending in the bill was about the size he had originally estimated.  The negotiations made Republicans look like the do-nothings and obstructionists and bad-faith bargainers they were.  Obama's popularity skyrocketed, the Republicans tanked.  The bill included the core elements of his campaign emphases (infrastructure spending, middle-class tax cuts etc.).  So where was the failure exactly?  

I think we can expect more of the same sober and clear-eyed movement on emerging issues:  He won't press it, and he won't avoid it.  He will gather information, state much of it in clear terms to the American public, develop a plan which responds to developments and contingencies and act decisively when the time is right.  I sense he and Geithner have been gathering information on the solvency of major banks.  I suspect they already know that some are under water, and more are headed that way.  He can't outright declare federal receivership and restructuring at this point without major panics and private capital flight, so he plays it cool again.  He can't just keep throwing money at the problem, so he takes a breath and a step back.  He will try to stabilize the system from the bottom-up, shoring up mortgages.  

He may try to attract private capital with some government guarantees to the financial sector to those banks that can survive, and he will likely pseudo-nationalize (take over, restructure, and sell back to the private sector) those banks that are irretrievably under water.  Stabilize, negotiate, intervene.  There is a wisdom there.   Obama is interested in getting things done, but not simply for the sake of getting them done.  That cowboy approach has already been tried.  We've seen the results.  Is Obama too cautious?  His track record would indicate he tends to get the balance between reflection/gathering information and acting/applying resources about right.  

Like I said, though I voted for and supported Obama, I understand he is only a talented, charismatic, thoughtful, and disciplined leader, not a demi-god.  It's nice to have someone like him covering our back.  We're here to cover his back as well.  This does not mean making excuses for him but emboldening him to act in a more comprehensive progressive direction and clarifying for him the right things (and the right times) on which to move through our pressure and our own grass-roots organizing.